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A beasty is coming... (Thursday 29th January 2009)

Over the next few days, we will start to see colder continental air progressing towards the UK allowing temperatures to dip significantly. Snow is likely at times although it is likely to be showery in nature to begin.

Friday
Rain will push into northern Ireland and western England during Thursday night. This is expected to stall across these areas, but some lighter patchier rain is possible into the Midlands for a time. Temperatures are expected to be rather mild in the west, with temperatures up to 10c. However, values will be 4c to 7c in the north and 5c to 7c in the south.

Saturday
Saturday will start chilly in many eastern areas, with some frost in places. Rain will continue in northern Ireland and spread into western Scotland. It is expected to be dry and bright in the east with more cloud in the west. Later, cloud will thicken from the east.

Temperature of 3-8c in the north and 5-6c in the south. However, it will start to feel a lot colder during the evening.

Sunday
Sunday is expected to be a dry day but very cold with lots of sunshine. Later on in the day, cloud will move into eastern coastal areas with the risk of some light snow flurries.

These are expected to spread further inland during Sunday night, and continue into Monday with the risk of more prolonged snow. This is a set up to watch, as some areas could see disruption. Stay tuned for updates!

Temperatures of 0c-3c in the north and 1-2c in the south.

Weather Warnings/Watches

Weather Map

Weather Watch (30/01/09)

Met4Cast issued an early watch in the past couple of days and the models today have shown a significant increase in the potential for some significant snow for many areas during the early part of next week.

The 00Z GFS models indicated a showery spell with the LOW risk of prolonged snow for a short period in the east. However, the 06Z GFS shows the prolonged risk now at a MODERATE risk. The 850 hPa warm sector appears to be present behind the primary frontal flank, suggesting a period of accumulating snowfall a head of the warm sector.

With 850 hPa starting off at -6c/-7c, this is sufficient for snowfall to lower levels but by the afternoon with the front well and truely in place across the east and south east, the warm sector pushes through rising these values to -3/-4c - these temperatures are sufficient for sleet to lower levels with further snow over higher ground.




























If PPN rates are heavy enough, the isotherm 0c can be dragged into a lower level preventing the tropospheric heating as a result of the warm sector - i.e. it will delay the effects for up to 2 hours potentially.

Therefore, at this stage, we believe some parts could see 5-7 CM+ at surface, with 10 CM+ to higher ground. These estimates may change throughout today and over the weekend but we will keep you posted.

Update: 12Z GFS models don't show any significant differences - the potential for some heavy snow Monday afternoon remains likely, but the risk of it being transient in nature is still there - 5 CM lower levels seems quite possible.

Stay tuned!
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